Probabilistic Networks and Explanatory Coherence.

Abstract

When surprising events occur, people naturally try to generate explanations of them. Such explanations usually involve hypothesizing causes that have the events as effects. Reasoning from effects to prior causes is found in many domains, including: Social reasoning: when friends are acting strange, we conjecture about what might be bothering them. Legal reasoning: when a crime has been committed, jurors must decide whether the prosecution's case gives a convincing explanation of the evidence. Medical diagnosis: given a set of symptoms, a physician tries to decide what disease or diseases produced them. Fault diagnosis in manufacturing: when a piece of equipment breaks down, a trouble shooter must try to determine the cause of the breakdown. Scientific theory evaluation: scientists seek an acceptable theory to explain experimental evidence. What is the nature of such reasoning?