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TY - GEN ID - cogprints2629 UR - http://cogprints.org/2629/ A1 - Franceschi, Paul TI - A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument Y1 - 2002/12// N2 - In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one. AV - public KW - Dooomsday argument KW - indeterminism KW - reference class problem ER -