---
abstract: "In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.\n"
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creators_name:
  - family: Franceschi
    given: Paul
    honourific: ''
    lineage: ''
date: 2002-12
date_type: published
datestamp: 2002-12-01
department: ~
dir: disk0/00/00/26/29
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eprint_status: archive
eprintid: 2629
fileinfo: /style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png;/2629/1/doomsday%2Den.pdf
full_text_status: public
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keywords: 'Dooomsday argument, indeterminism, reference class problem'
lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:55:06
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referencetext: |
  Bostrom, N. (1997) 'Investigations into the Doomsday argument', Preprint at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/inv/investigations.html
  
  Bostrom, N. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, New York, Routledge
  
  Chambers, T. (2001) 'Do Doomsday's Proponents Think We Were Born Yesterday?', Philosophy, 76, 443-50
  
  Delahaye, J-P. (1996) 'Recherche de modèles pour l’argument de l’apocalypse de Carter-Leslie', unpublished manuscript
  
  Eckhardt, W. (1993) 'Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 102, 483-88
  
  Eckhardt, W. (1997) 'A Shooting-Room view of Doomsday', Journal of Philosophy, 94, 244-259
  
  Franceschi, P. (1998) 'Une solution pour l'argument de l'apocalypse', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 28, 227-46
  
  Franceschi, P. (1999) 'Comment l'urne de Carter et Leslie se déverse dans celle de Hempel', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 29, 139-56, English translation at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints
  
  Franceschi, P. (2002) Une application des n-univers à l'argument de l'Apocalypse et au paradoxe de Goodman, doctoral dissertation
  
  Korb, K. & Oliver, J. (1998) 'A Refutation of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 107, 403–10
  
  Leslie, J. (1992) 'Time and the Anthropic Principle', Mind, 101, 521-40
  
  Leslie, J. (1993) 'Doom and Probabilities', Mind, 102, 489-91
  
  Leslie, J. (1996) The End of the World: the science and ethics of human extinction, London, Routledge
  
  Sober, E. (2003) 'An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge', to appear in Synthese
  
  Sowers, G. F. (2002) 'The Demise of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 111, 37-45
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reportno: ~
rev_number: 12
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source: ~
status_changed: 2007-09-12 16:46:05
subjects:
  - phil-sci
succeeds: ~
suggestions: ~
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title: A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument
type: preprint
userid: 2943
volume: ~
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