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--- abstract: "In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.\n" altloc: [] chapter: ~ commentary: ~ commref: ~ confdates: ~ conference: ~ confloc: ~ contact_email: ~ creators_id: [] creators_name: - family: Franceschi given: Paul honourific: '' lineage: '' date: 2002-12 date_type: published datestamp: 2002-12-01 department: ~ dir: disk0/00/00/26/29 edit_lock_since: ~ edit_lock_until: ~ edit_lock_user: ~ editors_id: [] editors_name: [] eprint_status: archive eprintid: 2629 fileinfo: /style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png;/2629/1/doomsday%2Den.pdf full_text_status: public importid: ~ institution: ~ isbn: ~ ispublished: ~ issn: ~ item_issues_comment: [] item_issues_count: 0 item_issues_description: [] item_issues_id: [] item_issues_reported_by: [] item_issues_resolved_by: [] item_issues_status: [] item_issues_timestamp: [] item_issues_type: [] keywords: 'Dooomsday argument, indeterminism, reference class problem' lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:55:06 latitude: ~ longitude: ~ metadata_visibility: show note: ~ number: ~ pagerange: ~ pubdom: FALSE publication: ~ publisher: ~ refereed: FALSE referencetext: | Bostrom, N. (1997) 'Investigations into the Doomsday argument', Preprint at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/inv/investigations.html Bostrom, N. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, New York, Routledge Chambers, T. (2001) 'Do Doomsday's Proponents Think We Were Born Yesterday?', Philosophy, 76, 443-50 Delahaye, J-P. (1996) 'Recherche de modèles pour l’argument de l’apocalypse de Carter-Leslie', unpublished manuscript Eckhardt, W. (1993) 'Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 102, 483-88 Eckhardt, W. (1997) 'A Shooting-Room view of Doomsday', Journal of Philosophy, 94, 244-259 Franceschi, P. (1998) 'Une solution pour l'argument de l'apocalypse', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 28, 227-46 Franceschi, P. (1999) 'Comment l'urne de Carter et Leslie se déverse dans celle de Hempel', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 29, 139-56, English translation at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints Franceschi, P. (2002) Une application des n-univers à l'argument de l'Apocalypse et au paradoxe de Goodman, doctoral dissertation Korb, K. & Oliver, J. (1998) 'A Refutation of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 107, 403–10 Leslie, J. (1992) 'Time and the Anthropic Principle', Mind, 101, 521-40 Leslie, J. (1993) 'Doom and Probabilities', Mind, 102, 489-91 Leslie, J. (1996) The End of the World: the science and ethics of human extinction, London, Routledge Sober, E. (2003) 'An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge', to appear in Synthese Sowers, G. F. (2002) 'The Demise of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 111, 37-45 relation_type: [] relation_uri: [] reportno: ~ rev_number: 12 series: ~ source: ~ status_changed: 2007-09-12 16:46:05 subjects: - phil-sci succeeds: ~ suggestions: ~ sword_depositor: ~ sword_slug: ~ thesistype: ~ title: A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument type: preprint userid: 2943 volume: ~