@misc{cogprints2990, month = {May}, title = {A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument}, author = {Paul Franceschi}, year = {2003}, keywords = {Doomsday argument, indeterminism, Bayes' theorem}, url = {http://cogprints.org/2990/}, abstract = {In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. The present line of thought is based on the fact that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a two-sided model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA and encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models. I argue then that this new analogy also holds when one takes into account the issue of indeterminism and the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.} }