?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=The+Doomsday+Simulation+Argument.+Or+why+isn't+the+end+nigh%2C+and+you're+not+living+in+a+simulation.&rft.creator=Aranyosi%2C+Mr.+Istv%C3%A1n+A.&rft.subject=Epistemology&rft.description=According+to+the+Carter-Leslie+Doomsday+Argument%2C+we+should+assign+a+high+probability+to+the+hypothesis+that++the+human+species+will+go+extinct+very+soon.+The+argument+is+based+on+the+application+of+Bayes%E2%80%99s+theo-rem+and+a+certain+indifference+principle+with+respect+to+the+temporal+location+of+our+observed+birth+rank+within+the+totality+of+birth+ranks+of+all+humans+who+will+ever+have+lived.%0A%0AAccording+to+Bostrom%E2%80%99s+Simulation+Argument%2C+which+appeals+to+a+weaker+indifference+principle+than+the+Doomsday+Argument%2C+at+least+one+of+the+following+three+propositions+must+be+true%3A+(1)+the+human+species+is+very+likely+to+go+extinct+before+reaching+a+posthuman+stage%2C+(2)+it+is+very+unlikely+that+some+posthuman+civili-zation+will+run+a+significant+number+of+ancestor+simula-tions%2C+(3)+it+is+almost+sure+that+we+are+living+in+a+com-puter+simulation.%0A%0AAccording+to+my+Doomsday+Simulation+Argument%2C+both+of+the+following+propositions+must+be+true%3A+(1)+it+is+almost+sure+that+the+human+species+will+not+go+extinct+before+reaching+a+posthuman+stage%2C+(2)+it+is+almost+sure+that+we+are+not+living+in+a+computer+simulation.%0A%0A&rft.date=2004-01&rft.type=Other&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F3404%2F1%2FThe_Doomsday_Simulation_Argument_by_I.A._Aranyosi.pdf&rft.identifier=++Aranyosi%2C+Mr.+Istv%C3%A1n+A.++(2004)+The+Doomsday+Simulation+Argument.+Or+why+isn't+the+end+nigh%2C+and+you're+not+living+in+a+simulation.+++++(Unpublished)++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F3404%2F