creators_name: Phillips, Ivan
type: preprint
datestamp: 2005-02-01
lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:55:49
metadata_visibility: show
title: Causality and the Doomsday Argument
subjects: phil-sci
full_text_status: public
keywords: doomsday argument, self-sampling assumption, causality, bayes' theorem, cosmology, anthropic principle
abstract: Using the Autodialer thought experiment, we show that the Self-Sampling Assumption (SSA) is too general, and propose a revision to the assumption that limits its applicability to causally-independent observers.  Under the revised assumption, the Doomsday Argument fails, and the paradoxes associated with the standard SSA are dispelled.  We also consider the effects of the revised sampling assumption on tests of  cosmological theories.  There we find that, while we must restrict our attention to universes containing at least one observer, the total number of observers predicted in each universe is irrelevant to the confirmation of a theory.
date: 2005-01
date_type: published
refereed: FALSE
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citation:   Phillips, Ivan  (2005) Causality and the Doomsday Argument.  [Preprint]     
document_url: http://cogprints.org/4045/1/Causality.pdf