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@misc{cogprints4519, month = {August}, title = {A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument}, author = {Paul Franceschi}, year = {2005}, keywords = {Doomsday argument, two-urn case, emerald case, thought experiement, probability theory}, url = {http://cogprints.org/4519/}, abstract = {In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their ancestors models, which renders them less vulnerable to several objections. I describe then a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.} }