This site has been permanently archived. This is a static copy provided by the University of Southampton.

TY - GEN ID - cogprints4519 UR - http://cogprints.org/4519/ A1 - Franceschi, Paul TI - A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument Y1 - 2005/08// N2 - In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their ancestors models, which renders them less vulnerable to several objections. I describe then a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one. AV - public KW - Doomsday argument KW - two-urn case KW - emerald case KW - thought experiement KW - probability theory ER -