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--- abstract: "In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their ancestors models, which renders them less vulnerable to several objections. I describe then a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one." altloc: [] chapter: ~ commentary: ~ commref: ~ confdates: ~ conference: ~ confloc: ~ contact_email: ~ creators_id: [] creators_name: - family: Franceschi given: Paul honourific: '' lineage: '' date: 2005-08 date_type: published datestamp: 2005-08-24 department: ~ dir: disk0/00/00/45/19 edit_lock_since: ~ edit_lock_until: ~ edit_lock_user: ~ editors_id: [] editors_name: [] eprint_status: archive eprintid: 4519 fileinfo: /style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png;/4519/1/doomsday%2Den.pdf full_text_status: public importid: ~ institution: ~ isbn: ~ ispublished: ~ issn: ~ item_issues_comment: [] item_issues_count: 0 item_issues_description: [] item_issues_id: [] item_issues_reported_by: [] item_issues_resolved_by: [] item_issues_status: [] item_issues_timestamp: [] item_issues_type: [] keywords: 'Doomsday argument, two-urn case, emerald case, thought experiement, probability theory' lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:56:09 latitude: ~ longitude: ~ metadata_visibility: no_search note: ~ number: ~ pagerange: ~ pubdom: FALSE publication: ~ publisher: ~ refereed: FALSE referencetext: | Bostrom, N. (1997) ‘Investigations into the Doomsday argument’, preprint at http://www.anthropic-principle.com/preprints/inv/investigations.html Bostrom, N. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, New York, Routledge Chambers, T. (2001) ‘Do Doomsday's Proponents Think We Were Born Yesterday?’, Philosophy, 76, 443-50 Delahaye, J-P. (1996) ‘Recherche de modèles pour l’argument de l’apocalypse de Carter-Leslie’, unpublished manuscript Eckhardt, W. (1993) ‘Probability Theory and the Doomsday Argument’, Mind, 102, 483-88 Eckhardt, W. (1997) ‘A Shooting-Room view of Doomsday’, Journal of Philosophy, 94, 244-259 Franceschi, P. (1998) ‘Une solution pour l'argument de l'apocalypse’, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 28, 227-46 Franceschi, P. (1999) ‘Comment l'urne de Carter et Leslie se déverse dans celle de Hempel’, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 29, 139-56, English translation under the title ‘The Doomsday Argument and Hempel's Problem’, PhilSci: 601 Franceschi, P. (2002) Une application des n-univers à l'argument de l'Apocalypse et au paradoxe de Goodman, Corté: University of Corsica, doctoral dissertation, published at Manuscrit-Université, Paris, 2004 Hájek, A. (2002) ‘Interpretations of Probability’, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, E. N. Zalta (ed.), http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2002/entries/probability-interpret Korb, K. & Oliver, J. (1998) ‘A Refutation of the Doomsday Argument’, Mind, 107, 403-10 Leslie, J. (1992) ‘Time and the Anthropic Principle’, Mind, 101, 521-40 Leslie, J. (1993) ‘Doom and Probabilities’, Mind, 102, 489-91 Leslie, J. (1996) The End of the World: the science and ethics of human extinction, London, Routledge Sober, E. (2003) ‘An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge’, Synthese, 135-3, 415-30 Sowers, G. F. (2002) ‘The Demise of the Doomsday Argument’, Mind, 111, 37-45 relation_type: [] relation_uri: [] reportno: ~ rev_number: 13 series: ~ source: ~ status_changed: 2007-09-12 17:00:28 subjects: - phil-logic - phil-epist succeeds: 2990 suggestions: ~ sword_depositor: ~ sword_slug: ~ thesistype: ~ title: A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument type: preprint userid: 2943 volume: ~