?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Forecasting+Methods+for+Conflict+Situations&rft.creator=Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott&rft.subject=Behavioral+Analysis&rft.description=In+1975%2C+a+consortium+sponsored+by+the+Argentine+government+tried+to+purchase+the+stock+of+the+Britishowned%0AFalkland+Islands+Company%2C+a+monopoly+that+owned+43+percent+of+the+land+in+the+Falklands%2C+employed+51+per+cent+of+the+labor+force%2C+had+a+monopoly+on+all+wool+exports%2C+and+operated+the+steamship+run+to+South+America.+The+stockholders+were+willing+to+sell+especially+because+the+Argentine+consortium+was+reportedly+willing+to+pay+%E2%80%9Calmost%0Aany+price.%E2%80%9D+But+the+British+government+stepped+in+to+prevent+the+sale%2C+(Murray+N.+Rothbard%2C+as+quoted+in+The+Wall+Street+Journal%2C+8+April+1982).+In+my+opinion%2C+the+actual+solution+in+the+Falklands+War+left+both+sides+worse+off+than+before.+In+contrast%2C+a+sale+of+the+Falklands+would+have+benefited+both+sides+in+the+short+run%2C+and%2C+as+companies+seldom+wage+shooting+wars%2C+this+would+probably+have+been+a+good+long-range+solution.+Apparently%2C+Britain+did+not+predict+how+the+Argentine+generals+would+act+when+it+blocked+the+sale%2C+and+the+Argentine+generals+did+not+predict+how+Britain+would+respond+when+they+occupied+the+islands.+Accurate+forecasting+by+each+side+in+this+situation+might+have+led+to+a+superior+solution.&rft.publisher=John+Wiley+%26+Sons%2C+Ltd%2C&rft.contributor=Wright%2C+G&rft.contributor=Ayton%2C+P&rft.date=1987&rft.type=Book+Chapter&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5184%2F1%2FForecastingMethodsforConflictSituations.pdf&rft.identifier=++Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott++(1987)+Forecasting+Methods+for+Conflict+Situations.++%5BBook+Chapter%5D+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5184%2F