@misc{cogprints5185,
          volume = {51},
          number = {4},
           title = {Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact},
          author = {J. Scott Armstrong},
            year = {1978},
           pages = {549--564},
         journal = {Journal of Business},
             url = {http://cogprints.org/5185/},
        abstract = {Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1)
Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95\% agreed with the first statement and 72\% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians.}
}

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