<> "The repository administrator has not yet configured an RDF license."^^ . <> . . "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact"^^ . "Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1)\nEconometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians."^^ . "1978" . . "51" . "4" . . "Journal of Business"^^ . . . . . . . . "J. Scott"^^ . "Armstrong"^^ . "J. Scott Armstrong"^^ . . . . . . "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (PDF)"^^ . . . . . . . . . "ForecastingWithEconometricMethods.pdf"^^ . . . "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (Image (PNG))"^^ . . . . . . "preview.png"^^ . . . "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (Indexer Terms)"^^ . . . . . . "indexcodes.txt"^^ . . "HTML Summary of #5185 \n\nForecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact\n\n" . "text/html" . . . "Behavioral Analysis" . .