--- abstract: |- Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians. altloc: - http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Econometric%20Methods.pdf chapter: ~ commentary: ~ commref: ~ confdates: ~ conference: ~ confloc: ~ contact_email: ~ creators_id: [] creators_name: - family: Armstrong given: J. Scott honourific: '' lineage: '' date: 1978 date_type: published datestamp: 2006-09-25 department: ~ dir: disk0/00/00/51/85 edit_lock_since: ~ edit_lock_until: ~ edit_lock_user: ~ editors_id: [] editors_name: [] eprint_status: archive eprintid: 5185 fileinfo: /style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png;/5185/1/ForecastingWithEconometricMethods.pdf full_text_status: public importid: ~ institution: ~ isbn: ~ ispublished: pub issn: ~ item_issues_comment: [] item_issues_count: 0 item_issues_description: [] item_issues_id: [] item_issues_reported_by: [] item_issues_resolved_by: [] item_issues_status: [] item_issues_timestamp: [] item_issues_type: [] keywords: ~ lastmod: 2011-03-11 08:56:37 latitude: ~ longitude: ~ metadata_visibility: show note: ~ number: 4 pagerange: 549-564 pubdom: FALSE publication: Journal of Business publisher: ~ refereed: FALSE referencetext: |- Armstrong, J. Scott (1968), “Long-range forecasting for international markets: The use of causal models,” in Robert L. 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S., The Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model,” Journal of Economic Literature, 12, 117-118. relation_type: [] relation_uri: [] reportno: ~ rev_number: 12 series: ~ source: ~ status_changed: 2007-09-12 17:07:40 subjects: - behanal succeeds: ~ suggestions: ~ sword_depositor: ~ sword_slug: ~ thesistype: ~ title: 'Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact' type: journalp userid: 214 volume: 51