?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Making+Progress+in+Forecasting&rft.creator=Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott&rft.creator=Fildes%2C+Robert&rft.subject=Behavioral+Analysis&rft.description=Twenty-five+years+ago%2C+the+International+Institute+of+Forecasters+was+established+%E2%80%9Cto+bridge+the+gap+between+theory+and+practice.%E2%80%9D+Its+primary+vehicle+was+the+Journal+of+Forecasting+and+is+now+the+International+Journal+of+Forecasting.+The+Institute+emphasizes+empirical+comparisons+of+reasonable+forecasting+approaches.+Such+studies+can+be+used+to+identify+the+best+forecasting+procedures+to+use+under+given+conditions%2C+a+process+we+call+evidence-based+forecasting.+Unfortunately%2C+evidence-based+forecasting+meets+resistance+from+academics+and+practitioners+when+the+findings+differ+from+currently+accepted+beliefs.+As+a+consequence%2C+although+much+progress+has+been+made+in+developing+improved+forecasting+methods%2C+the+diffusion+of+useful+forecasting+methods+has+been+disappointing.+To+bridge+the+gap+between+theory+and+practice%2C+we+recommend+a+stronger+emphasis+on+the+method+of+multiple+hypotheses+and+on+invited+replications+of+important+research.+It+is+then+necessary+to+translate+the+findings+into+principles+that+are+easy+to+understand+and+apply.+The+Internet+and+software+provide+important+opportunities+for+making+the+latest+findings+available+to+researchers+and+practitioners.+Because+researchers+and+practitioners+believe+that+their+areas+are+unique%2C+we+should+organize+findings+so+that+they+are+relevant+to+each+area+and+make+them+easily+available+when+people+search+for+information+about+forecasting+in+their+area.+Organisational+barriers+to+change+still+remain+to+be+overcome.+Research+into+the+specific+issues+faced+when+forecasting+remains+a+priority.&rft.date=2006&rft.type=Journal+(Paginated)&rft.type=NonPeerReviewed&rft.format=application%2Fpdf&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5192%2F1%2FMakingProgressinForecasting.pdf&rft.identifier=++Armstrong%2C+J.+Scott+and+Fildes%2C+Robert++(2006)+Making+Progress+in+Forecasting.++%5BJournal+(Paginated)%5D++++(In+Press)++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F5192%2F