?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rft.title=Illusory+Inferences+about+Probabilities&rft.creator=Johnson-Laird%2C+P.N.&rft.creator=Savary%2C+F.&rft.subject=Applied+Cognitive+Psychology&rft.subject=Cognitive+Psychology&rft.description=The+mental+model+theory+postulates+that+reasoners+build+models+of+the+situations+described+in+premises.+A+conclusion+is+possible+if+it+holds+in+at+least+one+model+of+the+premises%3B+it+is+probable+if+it+holds+in+most+of+the+models%3B+and+it+is+necessary+if+it+holds+in+all+of+the+models.+The+theory+also+postulates+that+reasoners+represent+as+little+information+as+possible+in+explicit+models+and%2C+in+particular%2C+that+they+represent+only+information+about+what+is+true.+One+consequence+is+that+there+should+be+a+category+of+illusory+inferences%3A+they+will+have+conclusions+that+seem+obvious%2C+but+that+are+wholly+erroneous.+Experiment+1+established+the+existence+of+such+illusory+inferences+about+probabilities.+Overall%2C+88%25+of+the+intelligent+adult+subjects+chose+as+more+probable+an+outcome+that+was+impossible+for+at+least+one+of+the+illusory+problems.+Experiment+2+corroborated+the+phenomenon+and+showed+that+illusory+inferences+include+a+wide+variety+of+problems.+Finally%2C+the+paper+argues+that+current+theories+based+on+formal+rules+of+inference+are+unlikely+to+be+able+to+explain+the+illusions.&rft.date=1996&rft.type=Journal+(Paginated)&rft.type=PeerReviewed&rft.format=text%2Fhtml&rft.identifier=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F657%2F1%2Fprob.htm&rft.identifier=++Johnson-Laird%2C+P.N.+and+Savary%2C+F.++(1996)+Illusory+Inferences+about+Probabilities.++%5BJournal+(Paginated)%5D+++++&rft.relation=http%3A%2F%2Fcogprints.org%2F657%2F