This site has been permanently archived. This is a static copy provided by the University of Southampton.

@misc{cogprints7044, volume = {34}, month = {October}, title = {A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument}, author = {Paul Franceschi}, year = {2010}, journal = {Journal of Philosophical Research}, keywords = {Doomsday argument, two-urn case, emerald case, thought experiment, probability theory}, url = {http://cogprints.org/7044/}, abstract = {In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument based on a third type of solution, by contrast to, on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and, on the other hand, the Eckhardt et al. analysis. I begin by strengthening both competing models by highlighting some variations of their original models, which renders them less vulnerable to several objections. I then describe a third line of solution, which incorporates insights from both Leslie and Eckhardt's models and fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. I argue then that this two-sided analogy casts new light on the reference class problem. This leads finally to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more plausible than the original one.} }