Cogprints: No conditions. Results ordered -Date, Title. 2018-01-17T14:27:31ZEPrintshttp://cogprints.org/images/sitelogo.gifhttp://cogprints.org/2017-02-18T22:07:19Z2017-02-18T22:07:19Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/9841This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/98412017-02-18T22:07:19ZThe Idea of WillThis article presents a new conceptual view on the conscious will. This new concept approaches our will from the perspective of the requirements of our neural-muscular system and not from our anthropocentric perspective. This approach not only repositions the will at the core of behavior control, it also integrates the studies of Libet and Wegner, which seem to support the opposite. The will does not return as an instrument we use to steer, but rather as part of the way we learn new automatic behavior and of how our neural system steers us. The new concept suggests that understanding of our will is more about understanding of our daily behavior then about the will itself.Drs. M.M. Dorenboschmichieldorenbosch@yahoo.co.uk2014-08-24T21:07:30Z2015-04-20T11:40:47Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/9756This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/97562014-08-24T21:07:30ZCo-Variations among Cognition, Cerebellar
Disorders and Cortical Areas With
Regional Glucose-Metabolic Activities in a
Homogeneous Sample with Uner Tan Syndrome:
Holistic Functioning of the Human BrainPatients with Uner Tan syndrome (UTS) exhibit habitual quadrupedal locomotion (QL), intellectual disability, dysarthric speech and truncal ataxia. Examination of cognitive ability in this syndrome has not yet been demonstrated in the scientific literature. Aims: (i) To analyze the cognitive abilities of the siblings with UTS; (ii) to assess the grade of their ataxia in relation to cerebellar disorders; (iii) to measure the metabolic activities of various cerebral regions in comparison with healthy individuals; (iv) to detect the interrelationships among all of the measured variables (IQ test scores, ataxia scores, cerebro-cerebellar areas and their metabolic activity levels) to reveal the holistic activity of the
brain. The Minimental State Examination (MMSE) and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-R) were applied to the affected cases and healthy subjects. Cerebellar disorders were assessed by the International Cooperative Ataxia Rating Scale (ICARS). Brain MRI scans were performed and cerebro-cerebellar areas were measured on MRI scans, including their metabolic activities (SUV), measured by positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. MMSE and WAIS-R scores both correlated with cerebro-cerebellar areas. Cerebello-vermial areas and their metabolic activities were significantly smaller in patients than in normal controls; areas of the remaining structures were not significantly different between patients and healthy subjects. Brain areas significantly inter-correlated: ICARS negatively correlated with WAIS-R,MMSE scores, SUV, and cerebro-cerebellar areas, which significantly correlated with each other. The results suggested (i) ICARS may not only be a test for cerebellar disorders, but also may be related to global functioning of all of the
cerebro-cerebellar regions; (ii) ICARS, WAIS-R and MMSE may be measures of emergent properties of the holistic
activity of the brain; (iii) the psychomotor disorders in UTS may be related to decreased brain metabolism.Prof. Dr. Uner Tanunertan37@yahoo.com2012-11-09T19:41:42Z2012-11-09T19:41:42Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/8279This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/82792012-11-09T19:41:42ZOn Social and Economic Spheres: An Observation of the “gantangan” Indonesian tradition
Indonesian traditional villagers have a tradition for the sake of their own social and economic security named “nyumbang”. There are wide variations of the traditions across the archipelago, and we revisit an observation to one in Subang, West Java, Indonesia. The paper discusses and employs the evolutionary game theoretic insights to see the process of “gantangan”, of the intertwining social cohesion and economic expectation of the participation within the traditional activities. The current development of the “gantangan” tradition is approached and generalized to propose a view between the economic and social sphere surrounding modern people. The interaction between social and economic sphere might be seen as a kind of Lokta-Volterra’s predator-prey-like interaction, where both are conflicting yet in a great necessity one another for the sustainability of the social life. While some explanations due to the current development of “gantangan” is drawn, some aspects related to traditional views complying the modern life with social and economic expectations is outlined. Hokky SitungkirYanu Endar Prasetyo2011-12-16T00:08:51Z2011-12-16T00:08:51Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/7747This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/77472011-12-16T00:08:51ZA neuroeconomic theory of rational addiction and
nonlinear time-perception.Neuroeconomic conditions for “rational addiction” (Becker and Murphy, 1988) have
been unknown. This paper derived the conditions for “rational addiction” by utilizing a
nonlinear time-perception theory of “hyperbolic” discounting, which is mathematically
equivalent to the q-exponential intertemporal choice model based on Tsallis' statistics. It
is shown that (i) Arrow-Pratt measure for temporal cognition corresponds to the degree
of irrationality (i.e., Prelec’s “decreasing impatience” parameter of temporal
discounting) and (ii) rationality in addicts is controlled by a nondimensionalization
parameter of the logarithmic time-perception function. Furthermore, the present theory
illustrates the possibility that addictive drugs increase impulsivity via dopaminergic
neuroadaptation without increasing irrationality. Future directions in the application of
the model to studies in neuroeconomics are discussed.Ph.D Taiki Takahashi2011-12-16T00:09:00Z2011-12-16T00:09:00Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/7746This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/77462011-12-16T00:09:00ZNeuroeconomics of suicide.Suicidal behavior is a leading cause of injury and death worldwide. Suicide has been associated with psychiatric illnesses such as depression and schizophrenia, as well as economic uncertainty, and social/cultural factors. This study proposes a neuroeconomic framework of suicide. Neuroeconomic parameters (e.g., risk-attitude, probability weighting, time discounting in intertemporal choice, and loss aversion) are predicted to be related to suicidal behavior. Neurobiological and neuroendocrinological substrates such as serotonin, dopamine, cortisol (HPA axis), nitric oxide, serum cholesterol, epinephrine, norepinephrine, gonadal hormones (e.g., estradiol and progesterone), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) in brain regions such as the orbitofrontal/dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and limbic regions (e.g., the amygdala) may supposedly be related to the neuroeconomic parameters modulating the risk of suicide. The present framework puts foundations for ―molecular neuroeconomics‖ of decision-making processes underlying suicidal behavior.Ph.D Taiki Takahashitaikitakahashi@gmail.com2011-09-19T11:57:40Z2012-05-18T14:25:32Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/7623This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/76232011-09-19T11:57:40ZThe Moral of Politics Constitutes Ideological Perspectives
The paper reports some insights that is acquired in the online survey observing the moral politics among Indonesian. The survey maps the participant’s responses into two dimensional axis of political ideology, comprised by the source of moral virtues (ethic-esoteric) and the method to achieve them (progressive-conservative). Since the political ideology is emerged from the moral political values, the observations through the responses in the survey are delivered. The observation also brings some insights from information theory, regarding to the uncertainty within the political minds as captured by the survey.Hokky Situngkirhs@compsoc.bandungfe.net2010-10-18T11:04:22Z2011-03-11T08:57:45Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/7046This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/70462010-10-18T11:04:22ZEmpathische Reaktionen gegenüber einem RoboterEs ist bereits bekannt, dass Menschen soziale Reaktionen auf Computer und artifizielle Wesen wie virtuelle Agenten zeigen. Auch für die Mensch-Roboter-Interaktion konnten erste Studien zeigen, dass Menschen Verhalten zeigen, das man lediglich in der Mensch-Mensch-Kommunikation erwarten würde. Ob auch empathische Reaktionen gegenüber Robotern gezeigt werden, wurde bislang nicht untersucht. In einem 2x2 laborexperimentellen Design betrachteten die Probanden (N=40) zwei Filme, in denen ein Spielzeugroboter in Dinosaurierform entweder gequält oder gestreichelt wird (Treatmentfaktor 1, within subjects). Der einen Hälfte der Probanden wurde der Roboter vorab vorgestellt und 10 Minuten zum Kennenlernen überlassen, während der anderen Hälfte der Probanden der Roboter vollkommen fremd war (Treatment Faktor 2, between subjects). Nach jedem Video wurde das emotionale Befinden mit Hilfe der PANAS erhoben und die Probanden füllten am Ende einen Fragebogen zur Bewertung des Roboters aus. Nach der Rezeption des Videos, in dem der Roboter gequält wird, fühlten die Probanden sich signifikant schlechter (F(1/39)=26,946; p=.000). Die Bedingungsvariation der vorherigen Interaktion zeigte jedoch keinen Einfluss auf das emotionale Befinden nach der Rezeption des Videos oder die empfundene Empathie. Somit konnte gezeigt werden, dass eine negative Behandlung eines Roboters das eigene Empfinden beeinflusst, dass eine kurzzeitige Interaktion mit dem Roboter das Mitleiden aber nicht verstärkt.Prof.Dr. Nicole C. Krämernicole.kraemer@uni-due.deAstrid M. von der Püttenastrid.von-der-putten@uni-due.deLaura HoffmannLaura.Hoffmann@stud.uni-due.deSabrina Sobierajsabrina.sobieraj@uni-due.deSabrina C. Eimlersabrina.eimler@uni-due.de2010-07-02T03:30:00Z2011-03-11T08:57:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/6864This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/68642010-07-02T03:30:00ZResearch on Social Engagement with a Rabbitic User InterfaceCompanions as interfaces to smart rooms need not only to be easy to interact with, but also to maintain long-term relationships with their users. The FP7-funded project SERA (Social Engagement with Robots and Agents) contributes to knowledge about and modeling of such relationships. One focal activity is an iterative field study to collect real-life long-term interaction data with a robotic interface. The first stage of this study has been completed. This paper reports on the set-up and the first insights.Sabine Payrsabine.payr@ofai.atPeter WallisStuart CunninghamMark Hawley2008-06-27T01:44:06Z2011-03-11T08:57:09Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/6112This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/61122008-06-27T01:44:06ZMultimodal Semiotics of Spiritual Experiences: Representing Beliefs, Metaphors, and ActionsTraditionally, spiritual experiences have been considered "ineffable," but metaphors pervade the representations of certain concepts of the transcendental in an attempt to talk about such abstract ideas. Whether it be during the description of a vision or simply talking about morality, people use conceptual metaphors to reason and talk about these concepts. Many representations of God, spirits, or the afterlife are culturally based, but whereas some may differ based on individual experiences, others seem to have a more universal character. From a phenomenological point of view, it seems that the descriptions are contingent and not necessary, that is, the language a believer is exposed to may influence, but not condition a priori, his or her own spiritual experience as Constructivists have thought. People's views about themselves and the world around them are deeply rooted in their conceptual systems, which are created by their experiences and their bodily interactions with the world, whether it's having to do with gravity in the case of UP and DOWN, or what our individual and social concepts are. When people talk about religious and spiritual concepts, they are revealing a great deal about their world and themselves and the way they interact with it. Concepts dealing with people's system of beliefs are very "meaningful" for the individual, and the more entrenched a frame of mind is, the less plastic it is, a fact confirmed by the neurosciences, which claim that it is difficult to break down and reconstruct certain synaptic structures of the brain. How do today's common "faithful" relate to certain metaphors about spiritual concepts transmitted by their faiths? What do these metaphors say about the individuals' concepts of themselves and their world? I will explore some of my own conclusions concerning conceptual metaphors and figurative language collected in various sacred texts and during a series of interviews of religious people with different backgrounds of religious systems. The data include linguistic expressions as well as gesture. Moreover, the interviewees were asked to draw on paper certain experiences of religious nature and then to describe their pictures. My investigation will try to shed new light on the phenomenology of religious experiences and personhood, using cognitive linguistics as a prime tool of analysis.Vito Evolaevola@berkeley.edu2006-08-13Z2011-03-11T08:56:34Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5068This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/50682006-08-13ZKnow-how Behavers, and Negative Choice Value in
Competitive Situation Abstract1
The purpose of the research was to find out: How does know-
how behavior link with a negative choice value of persons in a
competitive situation, and which background factors are
responsible for behavioral dynamic. It was assumed that the
joint background regulates the know-how of the behavers. When
the know-how of the behavers gains in the process, then other
behavers arouse a negative choice value toward the achievers,
and oust them. The number of the subjects was 256 in groups
of eight. Videotaped observation was the method of data
gathering. The corrected coefficient of observer reliability
was 0.920. χ2-test from a contingency table was applicable to
position the observations in the right places. Accordingly,
the coefficient of contingency was 0.145, and the correlation
between classes was 0.151. Probabilities were used to
scrutinize dynamic of behavior. The causation of the joint
background falsifies in the hypothesis. The dynamic
causalities corroborate: the perceivable gain of the know-how
of the behaver motivates the arousal of the negative choice
value in other behavers in a competitive situation. The
theoretic result was: persons who are able to progress things
are not the persons with the best of the knowledge because of
obstacles put them out.
1
The paper is thank to Prof. Daniel Perlman at University of
Calgary for his positive orientation to my research
activities. Ed.D Raimo Laasonen27-06-1944-10722006-07-23Z2011-03-11T08:56:32Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5011This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/50112006-07-23ZEVIDENCE FOR "UNERTAN SYNDROME" AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE HUMAN MINDA new family exhibiting “Unertan Sydnrome” was discovered. The pedigree analysis showed marriages between relatives. This family was similar to the first one (see Tan, 2006a), providing a firm evidence for the new syndrome. The affected children showed habitual quadrupedal walking gait, that is, they walked on wrists and feet with straight legs and arms. Their heads and bodies were mildly flexed; they exhibited mild cerebellar signs, and severe mental retardation. The pedigree demonstrated a typical autosomal-recessive inheritance. The genetic nature of
this syndrome suggests a backward stage in human evolution (devolution), which would be consistent with theories of punctuated evolution. The results reflected a
new theory on the evolution of human beings. That is, the evolution of humans would in fact be the evolution of the extensor motor system, responsible for upright posture, against the gravitational forces. This would be coupled with the emergence of the human mind, which can be considered a reflexion of the human motor system, in accord with the psychomotor theory (see Tan, 2005a). The
most important characteristic of the newly emerged human mind was the resistance against gravitational forces. This was the resistive mind, the origins of human creativity.Prof. Dr. Uner Tan2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5196This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51962006-10-05ZCompetitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market ShareCompetitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that competitor-oriented objectives reduce profitability. However, we found that this evidence has been ignored by managers. We then describe evidence from 12 new studies, one of which is introduced in this paper. This evidence supports the conclusion that competitor-oriented objectives are harmful, especially when managers receive information about market shares of competitors. Unfortunately, we expect that many firms will continue to use competitor-oriented objectives to the detriment of their profitability.J. Scott ArmstrongKesten C. Green2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5192This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51922006-10-05ZMaking Progress in ForecastingTwenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of reasonable forecasting approaches. Such studies can be used to identify the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions, a process we call evidence-based forecasting. Unfortunately, evidence-based forecasting meets resistance from academics and practitioners when the findings differ from currently accepted beliefs. As a consequence, although much progress has been made in developing improved forecasting methods, the diffusion of useful forecasting methods has been disappointing. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we recommend a stronger emphasis on the method of multiple hypotheses and on invited replications of important research. It is then necessary to translate the findings into principles that are easy to understand and apply. The Internet and software provide important opportunities for making the latest findings available to researchers and practitioners. Because researchers and practitioners believe that their areas are unique, we should organize findings so that they are relevant to each area and make them easily available when people search for information about forecasting in their area. Organisational barriers to change still remain to be overcome. Research into the specific issues faced when forecasting remains a priority.J. Scott ArmstrongRobert Fildes2007-02-19Z2011-03-11T08:56:46Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5399This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/53992007-02-19ZOn Causal Relations between Mental Organizer,
Action under Mental Processes, and Social
Environment
The purpose of the research was to study the relationships
between mental organizers, action under mental process, and social
environment through observation. A category system for each
behavior was constructed and data were analyzed with matrices to
find out kinds of root causes in causal dynamic. Reliability,
subjectivity, and validity of observation were assessed. The
coefficient of reliability was 0.937. The observation had about 11%
subjectivity, and the frequencies were in the categories where they
should be, mainly. Results indicate that there occurs causal
variety. The causes are not stable. As an entity, the results show
that it is possible to tackle mind processes through the causation.
Furthermore, the processes are in series but they drop by in a
parallel mode when the task becomes more difficult. However, the
mindamic seems to have the greatest possible number of the degrees
of freedom, simultaneously.Ed.D. Raimo J Laasonen06-27-44-10722006-01-06Z2011-03-11T08:56:18Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4678This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/46782006-01-06ZTheorizing CorruptionThe aim of this paper is to gain the broad explanation of corruption using simple computational model. We elaborated further the model of corruption described previously in Situngkir (2003b), with some additions in model’s properties. We performed hundreds of experiments computationally using Swarm and constructed the explanation of corruption based upon these results. We show that corruption should be understood as complex social-phenomena, which relates not only with economical aspect, but also with many other social and anthropological aspects. Deni KhanafiahHokky Situngkir2005-09-18Z2011-03-11T08:56:10Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4533This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/45332005-09-18ZEvolution and Mirror Neurons. An Introduction to the Nature of Self-ConsciousnessSelf-consciousness is a product of evolution. Few people today disagree with the evolutionary history of humans. But the nature of self-consciousness is still to be explained, and the story of evolution has rarely been used as a framework for studies on consciousness during the 20th century. This last point may be due to the fact that modern study of consciousness came up at a time where dominant philosophical movements were not in favor of evolutionist theories (Cunningham 1996). Research on consciousness based on Phenomenology or on Analytic Philosophy has been mostly taking the characteristics of humans as starting points. Relatively little has been done with bottom-up approaches, using performances of animals as a simpler starting point to understand the generation of consciousness through evolution. But this status may be changing, thanks to new tools coming from recent discoveries in neurology.
The discovery of mirror neurons about ten years ago (Gallese et al. 1996, Rizzolatti et al. 1996) has allowed the built up of new conceptual tools for the understanding of intersubjectivity within humans and non human primates (Gallese 2001, Hurley 2005). Studies in these fields are still in progress, with discussions on the level of applicability of this natural intersubjectivity to non human primates (Decety and Chaminade 2003).
We think that these subject/conspecific mental relations made possible by mirror neurons can open new paths for the understanding of the nature of self-consciousness via an evolutionist bottom-up approach.
We propose here a scenario for the build up of self-consciousness through evolution by a specific analysis of two steps of evolution: first step from simple living elements to non human primates comparable to chimpanzees, and second step from these non human primates to humans. We identify these two steps as representing the evolution from basic animal awareness to body self-awareness, and from body self-awareness to self-consciousness. (we consider that today non human primates are comparable to what were pre-human primates).
We position body self-awareness as corresponding to the performance of mirror self recognition as identified with chimpanzees and orangutans (Gallup). We propose to detail and understand the content of this body self-awareness through a specific evolutionist build up process using the performances of mirror neurons and group life.
We address the evolutionary step from body self-awareness to self-consciousness by complementing the recently proposed approach where self-consciousness is presented as a by-product of body self-awareness amplification via a positive feedback loop resulting of anxiety limitation (Menant 2004).
The scenario introduced here for the build up of self-consciousness through evolution leaves open the question about the nature of phenomenal-consciousness (Block 2002). We plan to address this question later on with the help of the scenario made available here. Christophe Menant2005-09-18Z2011-03-11T08:56:10Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4531This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/45312005-09-18ZInformation and Meaning in Life, Humans and RobotsInformation and meaning exist around us and within ourselves, and the same information can correspond to different meanings. This is true for humans and animals, and is becoming true for robots.
We propose here an overview of this subject by using a systemic tool related to meaning generation that has already been published (C. Menant, Entropy 2003).
The Meaning Generator System (MGS) is a system submitted to a constraint that generates a meaningful information when it receives an incident information that has a relation with the constraint. The content of the meaningful information is explicited, and its function is to
trigger an action that will be used to satisfy the constraint of the system.
The MGS has been introduced in the case of basic life submitted to a "stay alive" constraint.
We propose here to see how the usage of the MGS can be extended to more complex living systems, to humans and to robots by introducing new types of constraints, and integrating the MGS into higher level systems.
The application of the MGS to humans is partly based on a scenario relative to the evolution of body self-awareness toward self-consciousness that has already been presented
(C. Menant, Biosemiotics 2003, and TSC 2004).
The application of the MGS to robots is based on the definition of the MGS applied to robots functionality, taking into account the origins of the constraints.
We conclude with a summary of this overview and with themes that can be linked to this systemic approach on meaning generation.
Christophe Menantcrmenant@free.fr2006-07-23Z2011-03-11T08:56:31Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4996This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/49962006-07-23ZJoint attention in the first year: The
coordination of gaze and affect between 7 and
10 months of ageWe used a multilevel growth model to describe
the developmental trajectories of infant’s
coordinated attention between people and
objects between 7 and 10 months of age.
Additionally, we assed whether the
coordinated attention looks were accompanied
by smiles as infants interacted social partners.
These results confirm the emergence of visual
joint attention skills before the end of the first
year. These results will be useful in the
construction of robotic systems that engage in
joint attention.Daniel StahlTricia Striano2005-11-12Z2011-03-11T08:56:13Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4609This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/46092005-11-12ZMeasurement issues in taxonomic reliabilityWork in safety management often involves classification of events using coding schemes or
"taxonomies". Such schemes contain separate categories, and users have to reliably choose
which codes apply to the events in question. The usefulness of any system is limited by the
reliability with which it can be employed, that is the consensus that can be reached on
application of codes. This technical note is concerned with practical and theoretical issues in
defining and measuring such reliability. Three problem areas are covered: the use of correlational
measures, the reporting and calculating of indices of concordance and the use of
correction coefficients.
Dr Alastair RossDr Brendan WallaceProfessor John Davies2004-05-24Z2011-03-11T08:55:36Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3641This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/36412004-05-24ZSocial Balance Theory: Revisiting Heider’s Balance Theory for many agents
We construct a model based on Heider’s social balance theory to analyze the interpersonal network among social agents. The model of social balance theory provides us an interesting tool to see how a social group evolves to the possible balance state. We introduce the balance index that can be used to measure social balance in macro structure level (global balance index) or in micro structure (local balance index) to see how the local balance index influences the global balance structure. Several experiments are done and we discover how the social group can form separation of subgroups in a group or strengthening a social group while emphasizing the structure theorem and social mitosis previously introduced. Mr Hokky SitungkirMr Deni Khanafiah2009-03-04T03:22:32Z2011-03-11T08:57:19Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/6365This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/63652009-03-04T03:22:32ZThe STRS (shortness of breath, tremulousness, racing heart, and sweating): A brief checklist for acute distress with panic-like autonomic indicators; development and factor structureBackground: Peritraumatic response, as currently assessed by Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) diagnostic criterion A2, has weak positive predictive value (PPV) with respect to PTSD diagnosis. Research suggests that indicators of peritraumatic autonomic activation may supplement the PPV of PTSD criterion A2. We describe the development and factor structure of the STRS (Shortness of Breath, Tremulousness, Racing Heart, and Sweating), a one page, two-minute checklist with a five-point Likert-type response format based on a previously unpublished scale. It is the first validated self-report measure of peritraumatic activation of the autonomic nervous system.
Methods: We selected items from the Potential Stressful Events Interview (PSEI) to represent two latent variables: 1) PTSD diagnostic criterion A, and 2) acute autonomic activation. Participants (a convenience sample of 162 non-treatment seeking young adults) rated the most distressing incident of their lives on these items. We examined the factor structure of the STRS in this sample using factor and cluster analysis.
Results: Results confirmed a two-factor model. The factors together accounted for 68% of the variance. The variance in each item accounted for by the two factors together ranged from 41% to 74%. The item loadings on the two factors mapped precisely onto the two proposed latent variables.
Conclusion: The factor structure of the STRS is robust and interpretable. Autonomic activation signs tapped by the STRS constitute a dimension of the acute autonomic activation in response to stress that is distinct from the current PTSD criterion A2. Since the PTSD diagnostic criteria are likely to change in the DSM-V, further research is warranted to determine whether signs of peritraumatic autonomic activation such as those measured by this two-minute scale add to the positive predictive power of the current PTSD criterion A2. Additionally, future research is warranted to explore whether the four automatic activation items of the STRS can be useful as the basis for a possible PTSD criterion A3 in the DSM-V.H. Stefan Brachah.bracha@va.govAndrew E. WilliamsStephen N. HaynesEdward S KubanyTyler C. RalstonJennifer M. Yamashita2004-09-11Z2011-03-11T08:55:40Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3761This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/37612004-09-11ZBipolarity, Choice, and Entro-FieldUntil now, formal models of bipolar choice have been phenomenological and were not related to the deep principles of processing information by live organisms, which limited the applications of these models and made it difficult to generalize them to the case of multi-alternative choice. We demonstrate here how to deduce a model theoretically based on a general definition of the self-reflexive system and one assumption which we called the Axiom of the Second Choice. We show further that such a deduction of the model reveals its unexpected connection to the relations between an internal variable of the self-reflexive system, a partial derivative of the entropy of the environmental influence, and a partial derivative of the entropy of choice made by the system. This connection allows us to expand the two-alternative model of bipolar choice to the case of an arbitrary number of alternatives.
Vladimir A. Lefebvre2005-04-14Z2011-03-11T08:55:50Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4067This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/40672005-04-14ZThe Challenges of Joint AttentionThis paper discusses the concept of joint attention and the different skills underlying its development. We argue that joint attention is much more than gaze following or simultaneous looking because it implies a shared intentional relation to the world. The current state-of-the-art in robotic and computational models of the different prerequisites of joint attention is discussed in relation with a developmental timeline drawn from results in child studies.Frederic KaplanVerena Hafner2004-11-29Z2011-03-11T08:55:44Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3967This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/39672004-11-29ZParticipant Observation of a Mars Surface Habitat Mission SimulationFor twelve days in April 2002 we performed a closed simulation in the Mars Desert Research Station in Utah, isolated from other people, while exploring the area and sharing daily chores. Email provided our only means of contact; all mission-related messages were mediated by a remote mission support team. This protocol enabled a systematic and controlled study of crew activities, scheduling, and use of space. The study was primarily a methodological experiment in participant observation and work practice analysis, gathering quantitative data as part of an ethnographic study. The work practice analysis focused on two questions: Where did the time go—why did the crew feel rushed and unable to complete their work? How can we measure productivity, to compare habitat designs, schedules, roles, and tools? Analysis suggests that a simple scheduling change—having lunch and dinner earlier, plus eliminating afternoon meetings—increased the available productive time by 41%. Furthermore, observation of work practices suggested how to eliminate direct use of GPS devices by the crew, illustrating how an ethnographic study can help produce dramatically new operations concepts.William J. Clancey2004-03-06Z2011-03-11T08:55:16Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2925This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/29252004-03-06ZMentalism and Behaviorism: Merging? The Reflexive-Intentional Model of the Subject (RIMS) connects the subject’s bipolar probabilistic behavior with its mental domain. We demonstrate that the Matching Law is a formal consequence of this tie. RIMS allows us also to deduce theoretically the main patterns of animal behavior in the experiments with two alternatives where the Matching Law reveals itself. This finding inclines us to put forth a hypothesis that this law reflects the process of self-programming of the subject with mental domain. As a result, the subject acquires the ability to choose alternatives with fixed probabilities. With this explanation, the relative frequencies of pressing a pedal or pecking at a key play the role of half-finished-products which after being downloaded into the self turn into the probabilities of choice. The Matching Law can be regarded at as an operational indication of the mental domain existence.Vladimir A. Lefebvre2004-03-18Z2011-03-11T08:55:30Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3507This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/35072004-03-18ZOn Massive Conflict: Macro-Micro LinkMicro and macro properties of social system should be taken as relative poles of a two dimensional continuum since every debate on social system will however shift to the discussion on the two levels of description. This is consistently used as perspective to see massive social conflict. We propose analysis of the emerging conflict on its micro-causations by using computer simulations. We construct a dynamical model based on some propositions on massive conflict based upon the individual’s degree of membership to collective identity she has whether to mobilize or not. The simulations result the possibilities to see the linkage of the macro-micro properties in the case of massive conflict and suggestions on how to cope with massive conflict or even to resolve it. The paper is an endeavor to a more comprehensive methodology on how to cope with conflict on research and theory development.Hokky Situngkir2003-05-06Z2011-03-11T08:55:16Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2927This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/29272003-05-06ZTHE LAW OF SELF-REFLEXION: A Possible Unified Explanation for the Three Different Psychological Phenomena The centuries-old philosophical idea that man has an image of the self containing an image of the self (of the second order) obtains a new life in the mathematical model of the subject possessing reflexion. One assumption underlying the model is that the subject tends to generate patterns of behavior such that some kind of similarity is established between the subject himself and his second order image of the self. We demonstrate that this model allows a single explanation for three diverse, experimentally observed phenomena: (a) the nonlinear relation between magnitude estimation and categorization of identical stimuli (Parducci, Stevens, Galanter), (b) the avoidance of the value of 0.5 in estimating stimuli equidistant from two samples on a psychological scale (Poulton, Simmonds), and (c) the formal correspondence between, on the one hand, frequency of choice for particular alternatives and, on the other, reinforcement rate, found in some experiments with animals and people (Herrnstein, Baum). The results obtained allow us to hypothesize that the reflexive metaphor represents a general principle for regulation of both human and animal behavior.Vladimir A. Lefebvre2003-05-25Z2011-03-11T08:55:17Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2971This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/29712003-05-25ZAnimal Consciousness as a Test Case of Cognitive ScienceIn our dealings with animals at least most of us see them as conscious beings. On the other hand the employment of human categories to animals seems to be problematic. Reflecting on the details of human beliefs, for example, casts serious doubt on whether the cat is able to believe anything at all. These theses try to reflect on methodological issues when investigating animal minds. Developing a theory of animal mentality seems to be a test case of the interdisciplinary research programme in cognitive science. From the philosopher`s perspective the most pressing problem is how to talk about animal minds. Can we just employ the vocabulary of human psychology? If not, exploring animal minds contains the non-trivial task of introducing a terminology that allows to see the distinctness of animal minds and to see its connection to the human case.
The treatment of some topic in cognitive science has to reach a reflective equilibrium between our intuitions, a phenomenological approach, philosophical conceptual analysis, various empirical approaches and model building. Reflective equilibrium means in this context that we have to reach a coherent model which incorporates as much of our intuitions concerning animal consciousness and integrates at the same time the findings of the different co-operating sciences. There can be various trade-offs in case of conflict between, say, philosophical definitions of mental terms as to be applied to animals, neurophysiology, our reflected intuitions and ethological model building based on a computational theory of animal minds.
The paper gives an example of reflective equilibrium in discussing the case for awareness in vertebrates. It considers the role of evolutionary reasoning. The main focus lays on two examples of comparing our human notions (chosen here are “having concepts” and “belief”) with corresponding abilities in animals, and how an appropriate conceptual apparatus dealing with the abilities of animals could be introduced.
Manuel Bremer2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5181This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51812006-09-25ZDiscovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and ProposalsMy review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, using an open process likely will improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles. Journals should invite papers that contribute to principles. Business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings. Funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles.J. Scott Armstrong2003-10-04Z2011-03-11T08:55:04Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2526This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/25262003-10-04ZWhen 9-month-olds go 'wow' and 'yuk': Understanding other people's desiresYoung children perform well on a wide range of tasks involving the attribution of goals/desires. For instance, two- and three-year old children are told that a boy wants to find his rabbit, which is in one of two locations. If the puppet fails to find the rabbit in the first location, children predict that he will look in the second location; if the puppet finds the rabbit in the first location, however, children predict that he will not look in the second location (Wellman and Woolley 1990).
Although there is plenty of evidence that children can reason about other people’s desires, the origins of this ability is still very much unknown. In one study, Repacholi and Gopnik (1997) studied 18-month old children in a food-request procedure in which they asked whether the children could correctly understand people’s desires by predicting specific reactions to desired/undesired objects. The children saw the experimenter express disgust as she tasted one kind of food, and happiness as she tasted a different kind of food. They were then asked to give the experimenter some food. The children correctly gave her the food towards which she had expressed positive affect. This led researchers to conclude that the children not only inferred that another person held a desire, but they also recognized how desires relate to emotions.
More recently, researchers have looked at the origins of other people’s mental states in even younger infants using visual attention measures. For instance, Woodward (1998) has presented results that indicate that 12-month-old infants detect goals. The origins of subjective desire, however, is still an open question.
Here we proposed to start addressing the issue of subjective desire in young infants. In this task, thirty-two 10- and 11-month-old infants are familiarized with two scenarios. In (1), infants see the experimenter express disgust towards cracker/broccoli (‘yuk’), and in (2), infants see the experimenter express happiness towards broccoli/cracker (‘wow’). After the familiarization phase, the infants are then tested in one of two outcomes, the experimenter has a neutral expression and either grabs the broccoli, or the cracker. Parental reports on infants’ preferences are obtained to check their behavior against their performance in the task. If the infants have a psychological understanding of subjective desire, then they will expect the experimenter to grab the food towards which she expressed positive affect; if, on the other hand, the infants only have a behavioral understanding of desire, then they will be unable to determine the object of the experimenter’s desire because no specific cues are provided in the test phase. They will tend to respond egocentrically, and give the experimenter what they themselves like.
Preliminary results reveal that 10- and 11-month-old infants will look longer when the experimenter grabs the object towards which she expressed disgust. Data collection continues. Further steps towards the characterization of such ability are discussed.Claudia Uller2002-06-10Z2011-03-11T08:54:56Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2249This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/22492002-06-10ZAttentional and Semantic AnticipationsWhy are attentional processes important in the driving of anticipations? Anticipatory processes are fundamental cognitive abilities of living systems, in order to rapidly and accurately perceive new events in the environment, and to trigger adapted behaviors to the newly perceived events. To process anticipations adapted to sequences of various events in complex environments, the cognitive system must be able to run specific anticipations on the basis of selected relevant events. Then more attention must be given to events potentially relevant for the living system, compared to less important events.
What are useful attentional factors in anticipatory processes? The relevance of events in the environment depend on the effects they can have on the survival of the living system. The cognitive system must then be able to detect relevant events to drive anticipations and to trigger adapted behaviors. The attention given to an event depends on i) its external physical relevance in the environment, such as time duration and visual quality, and ii) on its internal semantic relevance in memory, such as knowledge about the event (semantic field in memory) and anticipatory power (associative strength to anticipated associates).
How can we model interactions between attentional and semantic anticipations? Specific types of distributed recurrent neural networks are able to code temporal sequences of events as associated attractors in memory. Particular learning protocol and spike rate transmission through synaptic associations allow the model presented to vary attentionally the amount of activation of anticipations (by activation or inhibition processes) as a function of the external and internal relevance of the perceived events. This type of model offers a unique opportunity to account for both anticipations and attention in unified terms of neural dynamics in a recurrent network.
Frédéric LavigneSylvain Denis2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5186This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51862006-09-25ZHypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication AuditWe examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that the use of a single dominant hypothesis lacks objectivity relative to the use of exploratory and competing hypotheses approaches. We then conducted a publication audit of over 1,700 empirical papers in six leading marketing journals during 1984-1999. Of these, 74% used the dominant hypothesis approach, while 13 % used multiple competing hypotheses, and 13% were exploratory. Competing hypotheses were more commonly used for studying methods (25%) than models (17%) and phenomena (7%). Changes in the approach to hypotheses since 1984 have been modest; there was a slight decrease in the percentage of competing hypotheses to 11%, which is plained primarily by an increasing proportion of papers on phenomena. Of the studies based on hypothesis testing, only 11 % described the conditions under which the hypotheses would apply, and dominant hypotheses were below competing hypotheses in this regard. Marketing scientists differed substantially in their opinions about what types of studies should be published and what was published. On average, they did not think dominant hypotheses should be used as often as they were, and they underestimated their use.J. Scott ArmstrongRoderick J. BrodieAndrew G. Parsons2002-06-10Z2011-03-11T08:54:56Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/2248This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/22482002-06-10ZAnticipatory Semantic ProcessesWhy anticipatory processes correspond to cognitive abilities of living systems? To be adapted to an environment, behaviors need at least i) internal representations of events occurring in the external environment; and ii) internal anticipations of possible events to occur in the external environment. Interactions of these two opposite but complementary cognitive properties lead to various patterns of experimental data on semantic processing.
How to investigate dynamic semantic processes? Experimental studies in cognitive psychology offer several interests such as: i) the control of the semantic environment such as words embedded in sentences; ii) the methodological tools allowing the observation of anticipations and adapted oculomotor behavior during reading; and iii) the analyze of different anticipatory processes within the theoretical framework of semantic processing.
What are the different types of semantic anticipations? Experimental data show that semantic anticipatory processes involve i) the coding in memory of sequences of words occurring in textual environments; ii) the anticipation of possible future words from currently perceived words; and iii) the selection of anticipated words as a function of the sequences of perceived words, achieved by anticipatory activations and inhibitory selection processes.
How to modelize anticipatory semantic processes? Localist or distributed neural networks models can account for some types of semantic processes, anticipatory or not. Attractor neural networks coding temporal sequences are presented as good candidate for modeling anticipatory semantic processes, according to specific properties of the human brain such as i) auto-associative memory; ii) learning and memorization of sequences of patterns; and iii) anticipation of memorized patterns from previously perceived patterns.
Frédéric LavignePascal Lavigne2004-09-03Z2011-03-11T08:55:40Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3782This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/37822004-09-03ZACCESSING REFERENTIAL INFORMATION DURING TEXT COMPOSITION :
WHEN AND WHY ?When composing a text, writers have to continually shift between content planning and content translating. This continuous shifting gives the writing activity its cyclic nature. The first section of this paper will analyse the writing process as a hierarchical cyclic activity. A methodological paradigm will be proposed for the investigation of the writing process. In the second section, we will partially present two experiments that were conducted independently, with this paradigm. Both give a coherent and interesting picture of what happens with content while the writer is planning. The characteristics of cycles depend both on the nature of the content information being recovered and on the complexity of the processes applied to this content.Christophe DansacDenis Alamargot2007-02-19Z2011-03-11T08:56:46Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5402This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/54022007-02-19ZMolar Behavior: Verbal and Nonverbal Behavior
Related to Mind Processes without VisionThe objective of the research was to answer the
question: What kinds of processes prevail between
molar behavior (verbal and nonverbal) and mind
processes? Data were obtained from a videotaped
program where the participants had no possibilities
to see the stimuli. The number of the subjects was
40. Reliability of observation was assessed in two
ways; from the z-score based correlation matrix and
from the normalized vectors. The statistical
analysis comprised of state vectors of the mind
processes and the conditional matrix powered from 1
to 11. So the analysis was a stochastic process with
a regular matrix. The results indicated the
existence the process system with controls. The
mindamic evolves until the half of the process and
then reaches dynamic equilibrium. A surprise was a
fact; the shape mindition has a greater chance to
transmute into the experientally organized mindition.
So the question is not to fill-in the plain organized
mindition with experiental content. The fact a part
of the former researches showed. At the same time it
was necessary to develop novel concepts for molar
behavior that included both verbal and nonverbal
behaviors. Again the importance of the transmuter
emphasized as an executerEd.D. Raimo J Laasonen06-27-1944-10722006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5197This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51972006-10-05ZPeer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and InnovationI reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen papers has met with limited success. Current procedures to assure quality and fairness seem to discourage scientific advancement, especially important innovations, because findings that conflict with current beliefs are often judged to have defects. Editors can use procedures to encourage the publication of papers with innovative findings such as invited papers, early-acceptance procedures, author nominations of reviewers, results-blind reviews, structured rating sheets, open peer review, and, in particular, electronic publication. Some journals are currently using these procedures. The basic principle behind the proposals is to change the decision from whether to publish a paper to how to publish it.J. Scott Armstrong2001-06-19Z2011-03-11T08:54:42Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/1605This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/16052001-06-19ZExperimental Analysis of Naming Behavior Cannot Explain Naming CapacityThe experimental analysis of naming behavior can tell us exactly the kinds of things Horne & Lowe (H
& L) report here: (1) the conditions under which people and animals succeed or fail in naming things
and (2) the conditions under which bidirectional associations are formed between inputs (objects,
pictures of objects, seen or heard names of objects) and outputs (spoken names of objects,
multimodal operations on objects). The "stimulus equivalence" that H & L single out is really just the
reflexive, symmetric and transitive property of pairwise associations among the above. This is real and
of some interest, but it unfortunately casts very little light on symbolization and language in general,
and naming capacity in particular. The associative equivalence between name and object is trivial in
relation to the real question, which is: How do we (or any system that can do it) manage to connect
names to things correctly (Harnad 1987, 1990, 1992)? The experimental analysis of naming behavior
begs this question entirely, simply taking it for granted that the connection is somehow successfully
accomplished. Stevan Harnad2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5199This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51992006-10-05ZReplications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite ContraryReplication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal space. On average, these extensions appeared seven years after the original study. The publication rate for such works has been decreasing since the 1970s. Published extensions typically produced results that conflicted with the original studies; of the 20 extensions published, 12 conflicted with the earlier results, and only 3 provided full confirmation. Published replications do not attract as many citations after publication as do the original studies, even when the results fail to support the original studies.Raymond HubbardJ. Scott Armstrong2005-02-16Z2011-03-11T08:55:51Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/4094This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/40942005-02-16ZWeber's Law Modeled by the Mathematical Description of a Beam BalanceA beam balance is analyzed as a model that describes Weber's law. The mathematical derivations of the torques on a beam balance produce a description that is strictly compatible with that law. The natural relationship of the beam balance model to Weber's law provides for an intuitive understanding of the relationship of Weber's law to sensory and receptor systems. Additionally, this model may offer a simple way to compute perturbations that result from unequal effects on coupled steady state systems. A practical outgrowth from this work is that a relatively simple mathematical description models sensory phenomena and may aid in the understanding of sensory and receptor systems.Richard G. Lanzara2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5183This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51832006-09-25ZEscalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing?Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on advertising and product-design decisions. Each situation was varied to reflect either a long-term or a short-term decision. Besides these four conditions, we conducted three replications. We found little evidence of escalation bias by 365 subjects in the seven experimental comparisons.J. Scott ArmstrongNicole CovielloBarbara Safranek2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5198This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51982006-10-05ZPrediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and NovicesAre those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The practitioners were correct on 58.2 percent of the hypotheses, the students on 56.6 percent, and the academics on 51.3 percent. No group performed better than chance.J. Scott Armstrong2004-07-30Z2011-03-11T08:55:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/3723This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/37232004-07-30ZAlgorithms for randomness in the behavioral sciences: A tutorialSimulations and experiments frequently demand the generation of random numbera that have
specific distributions. This article describes which distributions should be used for the most cammon
problems and gives algorithms to generate the numbers.It is also shown that a commonly used permutation algorithm (Nilsson, 1978) is deficient.Marc Brysbaert2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5184This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51842006-09-25ZForecasting Methods for Conflict SituationsIn 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned
Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands, employed 51 per cent of the labor force, had a monopoly on all wool exports, and operated the steamship run to South America. The stockholders were willing to sell especially because the Argentine consortium was reportedly willing to pay “almost
any price.” But the British government stepped in to prevent the sale, (Murray N. Rothbard, as quoted in The Wall Street Journal, 8 April 1982). In my opinion, the actual solution in the Falklands War left both sides worse off than before. In contrast, a sale of the Falklands would have benefited both sides in the short run, and, as companies seldom wage shooting wars, this would probably have been a good long-range solution. Apparently, Britain did not predict how the Argentine generals would act when it blocked the sale, and the Argentine generals did not predict how Britain would respond when they occupied the islands. Accurate forecasting by each side in this situation might have led to a superior solution.J. Scott Armstrong2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5180This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51802006-09-25ZCheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney)Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity about cases involving cheating, including cases of falsification of data and plagiarism, raises some questions: Is cheating a problem? Does it affect management science? Should anything be done?J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5191This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51912006-10-05ZLearner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments)Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A simple approach to this is the time contract. Time contracts have been used successfully in nine quasi-experiments but, despite these successes, some educators see this as subversive research.J. Scott Armstrong2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5179This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51792006-09-25ZBarriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s FormulaRecently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an “author’s formula,” a set of rules that authors can use to increase the likelihood and speed of acceptance of their manuscripts. Authors should: (1) not pick an important problem, (2) not challenge existing beliefs, (3) not obtain surprising results, (4) not use simple methods, (5) not provide full disclosure, and (6) not write clearly. Peters & Ceci (P&C) are obviously ignorant of the author’s formula. In their extension of the Kosinski study (Ross 1979; 1980), they broke most of the rules.J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5202This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/52022006-10-05ZStrategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential ApproachAn attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people use to implement important changes in organizations. This typical strategy, suggested or used by over 90% of the subjects, was not successful in producing change in any of the fourteen role-playing trials. However, with ten minutes of instruction in the ”Delta Technique,” 86% of the subjects were successful in introducing change in another fourteen role-playing trials. The ”Delta Technique” consists of simple rules drawn from half a century of research.J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5200This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/52002006-10-05ZThe Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in ForecastingPeople are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various companies, and political experts command large fees to tell our leaders what the future holds. The available evidence, however, implies that this
money is poorly spent. But because few people pay attention to this evidence, I have come up with what I call the "seersucker theory": "No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers."J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5203This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/52032006-10-05ZUnintelligible Management Research and Academic PrestigeModest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management journals and their "fog indices" (reading difficulty). Furthermore, 32 faculty members were asked to rate the prestige of four passages from management journals. The content of the passages was held constant while readability was varied. Those passages that were more difficult to read were rated higher in research competence.J. Scott Armstrong2006-09-25Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5185This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51852006-09-25ZForecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus FactEvidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1)
Econometric methods provide more accurate short-term forecasts than do other methods; and (2) more complex econometric methods yield more accurate forecasts. A survey of 21 experts in econometrics found that 95% agreed with the first statement and 72% agreed with the second. A review of the published empirical evidence yielded little support for either of the two statements in the 41 studies. The method of multiple hypotheses was suggested as a research strategy that will lead to more effective use of disconfirming evidence. Although this strategy was suggested in 1890, it has only recently been used by econometricians.J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:37Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5194This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51942006-10-05ZThe Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in MarketingNorris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor, Clarence Saunders, Harry Tosdal, Roland Vaile: Who are these people? They are great men in the history of marketing, according to Wright and Dinsdale (1974). They are marketing heroes. But riot society’s heroes. Rather than hero, the marketing man is usually a villain in novels; he is the butt of jokes; and respondents to surveys think poorly of him.J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5201This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/52012006-10-05ZSocial Irresponsibility in ManagementPreviously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None of the 57 control groups in this case were willing to remove a dangerous drug from the market. In fact, 79% of these groups took active steps to prevent its removal. This decision was classified as irresponsible by 97% of the respondents to a questionnaire. Because the role exerts such powerful effects, an attempt was made to modify subject’s perceptions of their role so that managers would feel responsible to all of the firm’s interest groups. Some subjects were told that board members should represent all interest groups; other subjects were placed on boards of
directors where the different groups were represented. Subjects in both groups also received information on the impact of the decisions upon stockholders, employees, and customers. The percentage of irresponsible decisions was reduced under these conditions as only 22% of the 116 groups selected the highly irresponsible decision. J. Scott Armstrong2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5205This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/52052006-10-05ZEstimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail SurveysValid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the magnitude of bias, the use of extrapolations led to substantial improvements over a strategy of not using extrapolations.J. Scott ArmstrongTerry S. Overton2001-06-19Z2011-03-11T08:54:42Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/1613This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/16132001-06-19ZPersistence of the pattern of feeding in chicks with hyperstriatal lesionsIntroduction:
Strategies for coloured food pellet selection (response sequences to one or another colour) were studied after training for a red (vs. yellow) preference on a board with/without distracting coloured pebbles.
Various lesions in the dorsomedial hyperstriatum accessorium (DMHA) of chicks were investigated because a) a substrate with functions similar to the mammalian hippocampus has been proposed for this region (Oades 1976), b) perseveration of choice based on persistent stimulus representations is a feature of selective attention after hippocampal brain-damage, and c) treatment with testosterone, with uptake sites in the hippocampus (i.a) also induced persistence in this task Rogers, 1971; Andrew, 1972).
Methods:
Operation: Chicks were given aspiration lesions or bilateral scalpel cuts to disconnect the DMHA on day 10 of life (5 types of lesion) and along with sham-operates first exposed to the the training regime 24h later.
Training/testing: Birds were given red-dyed food for 10 days, (but would accept normal yellow grains). On test they were presented with 200 red, 200 yellow grains spread on either a plain perspex floor or one with pebbles coloured like the food glued to the floor, and the identity of the first 100 pecks scored. The influence of priming with 50 pecks on one or the other colour vs. overnight experience of the non-preferred colour of food was also tested over 2 days
Results:
1/ Colour choice in terms of mean run length (MRL) or first 10 pecks was more stable in the lesioned birds and varied more with the test (and prior experience) in intact animals.
2/ On the plain floor - controls decreased their non-preferred food intake on day 1, but with overnight experience increased it markedly on day 2.
3/ On the pebble floor - controls were more distracted and pecked more pebbles. By comparison the DMHA group retained longer MRL for the trained colour preference.
4/ Chicks with lesions more lateral to the DMHA differed by showing a disruption of the trained preference
5/ Chicks with more ventral or more posterior brain-damage showed a food choice pattern that was indistinguishable from intact controls.
Conclusions:
The lack of lability of the trained feeding preferences of the DMHA animals (whether primed for short or long periods) and in the face of distracting stimuli is interpreted as consistent with the functions of the mammalian hippocampus in tests of selective attention. Different behaviour following damage to the DMHA periphery point to the specificity of the role attributed to the hyperstriatum accessorium
Oades2006-10-05Z2011-03-11T08:56:38Zhttp://cogprints.org/id/eprint/5195This item is in the repository with the URL: http://cogprints.org/id/eprint/51952006-10-05ZMonetary Incentives in Mail SurveysEighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these studies is described here and an attempt is made to generalize from all eighteen about the relationship between size of incentives and reduction in nonresponse. These generalizations should be of value for the design of mail survey studies.J. Scott Armstrong