**Next message:**Holmes, Sharon: "Re: Theory of Mind"**Previous message:**Harnad, Stevan: "Chapter 4: Vision"**Maybe in reply to:**Lowing, Ben: "Monty Hall"**Next in thread:**Ryan, NM: "Re: Monty Hall"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

*> From: "anonymous" <anonpy104@psy.soton.ac.uk>
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*>
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*> I can understand why some people may think the last door has
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*> 1/3 chance. However I still disagree, believing there is
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*> only 1/2 chance, as do most of my non-psychology friends.
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*>
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*> Therefore, as I can understand why other people think it's
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*> 1/3 BUT I cannot understand why that is the solution in my
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*> own mind. Does this mean the Monte Hall problem is
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*> cognitively penetrable to them, but cognitively impenetrable
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*> to me?
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It doesn't mean the problem is not cognitively penetrable; some people

just take more convincing than others!

How about this:

The three door are A, B & C.

Each has a 1/3 chance.

Suppose you always pick A: A will always win about 1/3 of the time, and

NOT-A (= B & C) will always win 2/3 of the time.

You are not allowed to pick two doors at a time, so Monty Hall makes it

easier for you: he always shows you which of B & C it ISN'T.

Now you know A wins 1/3 of the time and loses 2/3 of the time.

You also know B & C wins 2/3 of the time.

You agree it's better to choose B & C every time, rather than A.

Well, by revealing which of B & C is empty every time, Monty allows you

to choose B & C every time, by eliminating whichever one of them is

empty.

Think of switching from A to not-A as a switch to B & C with the extra

clue that whichever of B & C has no prize will always be revealed to

you each time by Monte Hall.

That's exactly like getting to choose both of them every time, hence it

will always win 2/3 of the time.

**Next message:**Holmes, Sharon: "Re: Theory of Mind"**Previous message:**Harnad, Stevan: "Chapter 4: Vision"**Maybe in reply to:**Lowing, Ben: "Monty Hall"**Next in thread:**Ryan, NM: "Re: Monty Hall"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

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