Comments on: I understand what you think you are predicting, I just can’t work out why you think you predicted it… http://moocs.southampton.ac.uk/websci/2013/11/05/understand-think-predicting-just-cant-work-think-predicted/ Web Science MOOC Sat, 24 Feb 2018 18:54:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.0.14 By: Tom http://moocs.southampton.ac.uk/websci/2013/11/05/understand-think-predicting-just-cant-work-think-predicted/#comment-142 Mon, 11 Nov 2013 09:01:14 +0000 http://moocs.southampton.ac.uk/websci/?p=328#comment-142 As a student of futurology several decades ago, the one thing that seemed crucial was that predicting things that don’t change much is not too difficult. But predicting when a variable changes drastically is nigh onto impossible. So predicting no change or easy change is easy, predicting step change or big change is impossible. You would probably have a great time reading one or two articles or books from the 1970s which tried to figure out what would happen by “the year 2000”, it is really quite fun now that we have nearly fifty years or actual reality to compare with the predictions.

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