Re: Monty Hall

From: Dunsdon, Graham (
Date: Wed Feb 19 1997 - 12:49:48 GMT

If you stick with your original choice (a 1:3 chance to get the prize)
then you are left with the REALITY that the (say middle box)which also
gave you a 1:3 chance now gives you a 0:3 chance. Thus you know if you
switch that the probability of the other option MUST be 2:3. The Monty
Hall problem (as described by Stevan) was NOT a two box problem and the
laws of probability work in your favour with the scenario of three
boxes originally. This is just how probability works - I don't see
anything strange in this conclusion. If you made say a thousand
attempts using the methodology described the results would, I suggest,
be very close to the 2:3 chance described in the example. Graham.

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