**Next message:**Taylor, Karl: "Re: Monty Hall"**Previous message:**Georghiu, Christos: "Re: Monty Hall"**Maybe in reply to:**Lowing, Ben: "Monty Hall"**Next in thread:**Taylor, Karl: "Re: Monty Hall"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

Having read the explanations people are offering, I think maybe a new

example is needed. Although Statistics was not my favourite of A levels

subjects, I did grasp the concept of simple probabilities (like this)

and we often did examples using playing cards.

e.g. What is the chance of picking a heart from a pack of 52 normal

playing cards?

The answer is 13/52. Say that a heart was selected, then what is the

probability of selecting another heart if thinking independently of the

previous event. The answer would be 12/51, because there are only 12

hearts left, and 51 cards in the pack.

Should this method of working probabilities not suggest that the

remaining doors each have a probability of 1/2 rather than 1/3 and

2/3?

This is the way I understand it. Have I got the wrong idea, and is this

totally irrelevant?!?!?!

Nathalie Horne

P.S. Can anyone explain to me how and why this problem is relivant to

the PY104 course???

**Next message:**Taylor, Karl: "Re: Monty Hall"**Previous message:**Georghiu, Christos: "Re: Monty Hall"**Maybe in reply to:**Lowing, Ben: "Monty Hall"**Next in thread:**Taylor, Karl: "Re: Monty Hall"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

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