This investigation considers the use of historical data from offshore locations to develop a probabilistic methodology to predict a risk of thermal overheating in submarine cables connecting offshore wind farms back to land. An hours ahead thermal risk estimation performed on-line could be used as a tool for the system operators to avoid the cost of energy curtailed when the amount of power generated is higher than the cable maximum ampacity but the cable temperature is low. Increments in load current delivered through the cable without risk of thermal damage would decrease the levelized cost of the energy generated offshore increasing the capacity utilization of offshore installations.