A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument

Franceschi, Paul (2002) A Third Route to the Doomsday Argument. [Preprint]


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In this paper, I present a solution to the Doomsday argument (DA) based on a third type of solution, by contrast to on the one hand, the Carter-Leslie view and on the other hand, the Eckhardt-Sowers-Sober analysis. I argue that both aforementioned analyses are based on an inaccurate analogy. After discussing the imperfections of both models, I present then a novel model that fits more adequately with the human situation corresponding to DA. This last model also encapsulates both Carter-Leslie's and Eckhardt et al.'s models, and reveals a link with the issue of mind-body dualism. Lastly I argue that this novel analogy, combined with an adequate solution to the reference class problem, leads to a novel formulation of the argument that could well be more consensual than the original one.

Item Type:Preprint
Keywords:Dooomsday argument, indeterminism, reference class problem
Subjects:Philosophy > Philosophy of Science
ID Code:2629
Deposited By: Franceschi, Paul
Deposited On:01 Dec 2002
Last Modified:11 Mar 2011 08:55

References in Article

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Bostrom, N. (1997) 'Investigations into the Doomsday argument', Preprint at

Bostrom, N. (2002) Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, New York, Routledge

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Franceschi, P. (1998) 'Une solution pour l'argument de l'apocalypse', Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 28, 227-46

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Sober, E. (2003) 'An Empirical Critique of Two Versions of the Doomsday Argument - Gott’s Line and Leslie’s Wedge', to appear in Synthese

Sowers, G. F. (2002) 'The Demise of the Doomsday Argument', Mind, 111, 37-45


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